Reno, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS65 KREV 190916
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
216 AM PDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms again possible this afternoon
  south of US-50, mainly in Mono and Mineral counties.

* Hazy skies continue in far northeast CA and northwest NV from
  wildfire smoke. Typical July heat continues this weekend, then
  some cooling arrives for next week.

* Stronger winds are likely for Monday, which may impact travel
  and recreation, and elevate fire concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weather conditions similar to the past few days continue for this
weekend, with afternoon highs mainly in the mid-upper 90s each day
for lower elevations and lower-mid 80s for Sierra communities.
Dry air mass will allow for a decent cooldown each night, so heat
impacts will be lower compared to last weekend.

Parts of northeast CA and northwest NV will continue to deal with
haze and areas of smoke from active fires in northern CA, with the
majority of the smoke coming from the Green and Butler fires.
Periods of reduced air quality are most likely during the late
night and morning hours across northern Lassen County, the
Surprise Valley and eastward into parts of northwest NV. Elsewhere
in the Sierra and western Nevada, air quality impacts have been
minimal, with some light haze at times.

While mostly clear conditions prevail across most of the region,
lingering instability across parts of Mineral and Mono counties
keeps 10-20% chance of short-lived thunderstorms mainly south and
east of Mono and Walker lakes, although some high resolution
guidance leaves some potential for a few cells closer to the
Sierra crest. Main impacts from storms will be gusty outflow
winds, especially with downdraft CAPE values around 1000-1300 J/kg
this afternoon in lower elevations of eastern Mineral/Mono
counties.

For Sunday and Monday, a trough of low pressure over southwest
Canada drops southward into the northwest US, reaching its
southernmost extent by Monday afternoon. This will lead to a
ramping up of winds primarily for Monday afternoon, when a period
of critical fire weather conditions is most likely (see the Fire
Weather section below for more details). Drier air will reduce the
chances for PM thunder both Sunday and Monday, although a few
buildups and brief showers could form Sunday afternoon in eastern
Mineral-Mono counties, and in areas near the Oregon border Monday.

The other main effect of this trough passage will be several
degrees of cooling from Monday through the bulk of next week. High
temperatures look to settle into the upper 80s-lower 90s for most
lower elevations, with mid-upper 70s near the Sierra. Lows will
even be a touch chilly for late July, mainly 50s for western NV
and upper 30s-40s near the Sierra. There is a low-end (less than
15%) chance for isolated PM showers and thunderstorms by mid-late
week as a closed low breaks off from Monday`s trough passage and
meanders near or off the northern CA coast. Confidence is lower on
this storm potential, due to some spread in the medium range
ensemble guidance on the location and extent of this low. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions and typical SW-W afternoon breezes
continue again this weekend, with gusts near 25 kt for the western
NV terminals southward to KMMH mainly between 21-04Z. Lesser
winds are expected for KTVL/KTRK, with gusts below 20 kt today and
around 20 kt on Sunday. Only exception is for KMMH which has a
10-20% chance for short-duration thunderstorms between 21Z-02Z
this afternoon.

Lingering heat will maintain some density altitude concerns for
western Nevada terminals each afternoon through Sunday.

Stronger winds are projected to arrive for Monday, with SW-W wind
gusts near or above 30 kts, along with periods of mountain wave
turbulence and occasional LLWS. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A low pressure trough dropping southward into the northwest US
will bring a gradual increase in SW-W winds this weekend, with
gusts edging upward to 25-30 mph this afternoon, then around 30
mph by Sunday. The highest potential for winds surpassing
critical thresholds will be Monday afternoon as gusts increase to
35-40 mph. RH reductions to 7-15% are expected each day from the
Sierra Front into the W NV Basin and Range.

A brief, 1-3 hour period of locally critical fire weather
conditions is probable Sunday afternoon from eastern Lassen
County into northwest NV and the northern Sierra Front. Duration
of critical conditions increases to 2-5 hours Monday afternoon
and expands eastward into the W NV Basin and Range. Overnight
recoveries will be poor across western Nevada each night through
Monday AM as RH struggles to exceed 35%, but improves Monday
night.

Winds weaken after Monday with more typical afternoon breezes next
week, although isolated thunderstorm chances could return by mid-
late week. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$